Portfolio Balance Over Time
Year-by-Year Breakdown
| Spouse | Child | SS Phase | SS/mo | Spouse Inc |
Health/mo | Need/mo | Draw/mo | Tax/mo |
Net Inc | Gap | Portfolio |
Methodology & Assumptions
What this tool does: It answers one question — "How much 20-year term life insurance should I buy?" It simulates your surviving spouse's financial life from your death through their target age and finds the minimum insurance face value that keeps the portfolio funded the entire time.
How the simulation works
When you die, all insurance proceeds (term policy + employer group life) are deposited into the portfolio as tax-free cash. The brokerage account receives a stepped-up cost basis, meaning no capital gains tax on pre-death appreciation.
Each year, the tool calculates your spouse's total monthly need (budget items + health insurance, adjusted for inflation), subtracts guaranteed income (Social Security survivor benefits + any spouse employment income), and withdraws the remaining gap from the portfolio.
The auto-solver uses binary search ($0–$5M in $25K steps) to find the smallest term face value where the portfolio never runs out through the target age.
Monthly budget & health insurance
The budget sliders represent your spouse's monthly living expenses excluding health insurance. Default values are based on national averages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Health insurance is automatically calculated and added on top of the slider budget:
- Under 65 (ACA Marketplace): Premium capped as a percentage of MAGI, scaling from 2% at $20K to 8.5% at $62K+. Benchmark: $850/mo with child, $600/mo single. Below $20K = Medicaid ($0).
- 65+ (Medicare): Flat $400/mo (Part B + Medigap + Part D estimate).
Social Security survivor benefits
Benefits phase through the following stages based on your family's ages:
- Child under 16: Caretaker benefit + Child benefit (capped at family maximum)
- Child 16–17: Child benefit continues; widow benefit may begin at spouse age 60
- Child 18+: Child benefits end. Widow benefit only (reduced before FRA 67, full at 67+)
- Blackout period: If child ages out before spouse reaches 60, there may be years with no SS income
All SS amounts grow at 2% COLA annually. The SS Confidence slider scales benefits to model trust fund solvency risk.
Tax model
- Filing status: Head of Household while child is a dependent (under 19): $21,900 standard deduction. Single after: $15,000.
- Federal + State: Federal progressive brackets plus state income tax based on your selected state.
- Retirement withdrawals: Taxed as ordinary income
- Brokerage withdrawals: Stepped-up basis at death. Only post-death gains taxable at 15% LTCG.
- Cash withdrawals: Tax-free (insurance proceeds + savings)
- Social Security: Partially taxable (50% inclusion $25K–$34K provisional income, 85% above $34K)
- Tax gross-up: 3-pass iterative calculation to account for taxes on withdrawals
Withdrawal order
Cash (tax-free) → Brokerage (LTCG on gains only) → Retirement (ordinary income). Minimizes taxes by using the most tax-efficient source first.
Other assumptions
- Child independence (age 25): Food and shopping reduced 30%, kids category drops to $0, personal reduced 20%.
- Portfolio growth: All accounts grow at the net annual return (default 6%), applied after withdrawals each year.
- Inflation: All budget items inflate annually (default 3%).
- Term premium: Estimated based on age, sex, and industry average rates for preferred non-smoker, 20-year level term.
- Retirement penalty: No 10% early withdrawal penalty. Assumes inherited IRA (no penalty at any age).
- RMDs: Not modeled. Living-expense withdrawals typically exceed RMD minimums.
What this tool does NOT model
- Remarriage, inheritance, or other windfalls
- Long-term care costs
- Home sale or downsizing
- Mortgage payoff (assumes payments continue for life of loan)
- ACA subsidy cliff or policy changes
- Medical inflation beyond the general inflation rate